Recent ensemble forecasts from major models including GFS and ECMWF indicate mostly clear skies, light easterly to southeasterly winds, and stable high pressure over central Spain, supporting a maximum temperature near 30–32 °C in Madrid on September 20. This places the day well above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 25.5 °C amid an ongoing late-summer warm period with minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk. Trader consensus reflected in the 59 % implied probability for 31 °C and 31 % for 32 °C aligns with the tight clustering of deterministic guidance two days before the event, though final readings depend on exact timing of peak insolation and any last-minute model adjustments from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 20 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 20 de setembro?
31°C 59%
32°C 32%
30°C 8%
33°C 4%
NOVO
NOVO
20 set 2026
25°C ou menos
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
2%
30°C
8%
31°C
59%
32°C
32%
33°C
4%
34°C
2%
35°C ou mais
<1%
31°C 59%
32°C 32%
30°C 8%
33°C 4%
NOVO
NOVO
20 set 2026
25°C ou menos
$181 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$193 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$335 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
2%
29°C
$57 Vol.
2%
30°C
$282 Vol.
8%
31°C
$529 Vol.
59%
32°C
$224 Vol.
32%
33°C
$66 Vol.
4%
34°C
$0 Vol.
2%
35°C ou mais
$48 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models including GFS and ECMWF indicate mostly clear skies, light easterly to southeasterly winds, and stable high pressure over central Spain, supporting a maximum temperature near 30–32 °C in Madrid on September 20. This places the day well above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 25.5 °C amid an ongoing late-summer warm period with minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk. Trader consensus reflected in the 59 % implied probability for 31 °C and 31 % for 32 °C aligns with the tight clustering of deterministic guidance two days before the event, though final readings depend on exact timing of peak insolation and any last-minute model adjustments from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,913Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models including GFS and ECMWF indicate mostly clear skies, light easterly to southeasterly winds, and stable high pressure over central Spain, supporting a maximum temperature near 30–32 °C in Madrid on September 20. This places the day well above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 25.5 °C amid an ongoing late-summer warm period with minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk. Trader consensus reflected in the 59 % implied probability for 31 °C and 31 % for 32 °C aligns with the tight clustering of deterministic guidance two days before the event, though final readings depend on exact timing of peak insolation and any last-minute model adjustments from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,913Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major models including GFS and ECMWF indicate mostly clear skies, light easterly to southeasterly winds, and stable high pressure over central Spain, supporting a maximum temperature near 30–32 °C in Madrid on September 20. This places the day well above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 25.5 °C amid an ongoing late-summer warm period with minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk. Trader consensus reflected in the 59 % implied probability for 31 °C and 31 % for 32 °C aligns with the tight clustering of deterministic guidance two days before the event, though final readings depend on exact timing of peak insolation and any last-minute model adjustments from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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