Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 70–73°F outcomes for San Francisco’s August 25 high, reflecting tight model consensus around a shallow marine layer and persistent onshore westerly flow. National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble guidance indicate morning stratus and haze limiting insolation, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s at official stations under 10–20 mph winds. Subtle differences between the 70–71°F and 72–73°F bins hinge on forecast mixing depth and any late-day ridge influence that could briefly erode the inversion; coastal upwelling and typical August climatology cap extreme upside, keeping odds for 74°F+ below 10%. Latest model runs and real-time observations will determine final resolution as the day progresses.