Forecast consensus from MetService and models such as those referenced by AccuWeather and the Met Office centers on a maximum near 14°C for Wellington on August 14, aligning with the market's leading 58.5% implied probability for that outcome. Late-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere feature cool maritime air masses, with southerly flows and cloud cover limiting daytime warming; recent observations show highs around 13–15°C amid light winds and possible morning showers. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA indicate near-average temperatures overall, while short-term model runs highlight modest variability from frontal timing and wind shifts that could nudge the peak between 13°C and 15°C. Traders appear to weigh these official guidance thresholds heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers given the narrow historical range for August maxima.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Wellington em 14 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Wellington em 14 de agosto?
14°C 59%
13°C 25%
15°C 13%
16°C 4%
NOVO
$11,316 Vol.
NOVO
$11,316 Vol.
14 ago 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
3%
13°C
25%
14°C
59%
15°C
13%
16°C
4%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 59%
13°C 25%
15°C 13%
16°C 4%
NOVO
$11,316 Vol.
NOVO
$11,316 Vol.
14 ago 2026
8°C or below
$333 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$526 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$604 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$302 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,210 Vol.
3%
13°C
$2,310 Vol.
25%
14°C
$2,332 Vol.
59%
15°C
$1,473 Vol.
13%
16°C
$1,117 Vol.
4%
17°C
$648 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$461 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from MetService and models such as those referenced by AccuWeather and the Met Office centers on a maximum near 14°C for Wellington on August 14, aligning with the market's leading 58.5% implied probability for that outcome. Late-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere feature cool maritime air masses, with southerly flows and cloud cover limiting daytime warming; recent observations show highs around 13–15°C amid light winds and possible morning showers. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA indicate near-average temperatures overall, while short-term model runs highlight modest variability from frontal timing and wind shifts that could nudge the peak between 13°C and 15°C. Traders appear to weigh these official guidance thresholds heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers given the narrow historical range for August maxima.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$11,316Data de Término
14 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from MetService and models such as those referenced by AccuWeather and the Met Office centers on a maximum near 14°C for Wellington on August 14, aligning with the market's leading 58.5% implied probability for that outcome. Late-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere feature cool maritime air masses, with southerly flows and cloud cover limiting daytime warming; recent observations show highs around 13–15°C amid light winds and possible morning showers. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA indicate near-average temperatures overall, while short-term model runs highlight modest variability from frontal timing and wind shifts that could nudge the peak between 13°C and 15°C. Traders appear to weigh these official guidance thresholds heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers given the narrow historical range for August maxima.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,316Data de Término
14 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from MetService and models such as those referenced by AccuWeather and the Met Office centers on a maximum near 14°C for Wellington on August 14, aligning with the market's leading 58.5% implied probability for that outcome. Late-winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere feature cool maritime air masses, with southerly flows and cloud cover limiting daytime warming; recent observations show highs around 13–15°C amid light winds and possible morning showers. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA indicate near-average temperatures overall, while short-term model runs highlight modest variability from frontal timing and wind shifts that could nudge the peak between 13°C and 15°C. Traders appear to weigh these official guidance thresholds heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers given the narrow historical range for August maxima.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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