As South Korea's president since his 2025 snap election victory, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that generally shields sitting leaders from arrest or active prosecution, a key factor sustaining trader consensus on low odds of detention before 2027. Ongoing cases—including election law violations where the Supreme Court overturned an earlier acquittal, corruption allegations tied to his mayoral tenure, and breach of trust claims—have seen repeated postponements, suspensions due to his official status, and procedural delays through mid-2026. Appeals processes and court timelines typically extend years, with recent rulings focusing on related figures rather than new actions against Lee. These institutional protections and pacing explain the market's assessment of remote near-term risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLee Jae-myung preso antes de 2027?
Lee Jae-myung preso antes de 2027?
Sim
9% chance
$537,986 Vol.
$537,986 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
9% chance
$537,986 Vol.
$537,986 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As South Korea's president since his 2025 snap election victory, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that generally shields sitting leaders from arrest or active prosecution, a key factor sustaining trader consensus on low odds of detention before 2027. Ongoing cases—including election law violations where the Supreme Court overturned an earlier acquittal, corruption allegations tied to his mayoral tenure, and breach of trust claims—have seen repeated postponements, suspensions due to his official status, and procedural delays through mid-2026. Appeals processes and court timelines typically extend years, with recent rulings focusing on related figures rather than new actions against Lee. These institutional protections and pacing explain the market's assessment of remote near-term risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$537,986Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.As South Korea's president since his 2025 snap election victory, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that generally shields sitting leaders from arrest or active prosecution, a key factor sustaining trader consensus on low odds of detention before 2027. Ongoing cases—including election law violations where the Supreme Court overturned an earlier acquittal, corruption allegations tied to his mayoral tenure, and breach of trust claims—have seen repeated postponements, suspensions due to his official status, and procedural delays through mid-2026. Appeals processes and court timelines typically extend years, with recent rulings focusing on related figures rather than new actions against Lee. These institutional protections and pacing explain the market's assessment of remote near-term risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$537,986Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As South Korea's president since his 2025 snap election victory, Lee Jae-myung benefits from constitutional immunity that generally shields sitting leaders from arrest or active prosecution, a key factor sustaining trader consensus on low odds of detention before 2027. Ongoing cases—including election law violations where the Supreme Court overturned an earlier acquittal, corruption allegations tied to his mayoral tenure, and breach of trust claims—have seen repeated postponements, suspensions due to his official status, and procedural delays through mid-2026. Appeals processes and court timelines typically extend years, with recent rulings focusing on related figures rather than new actions against Lee. These institutional protections and pacing explain the market's assessment of remote near-term risk.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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