Recent model consensus from sources including the South African Weather Service, GFS, and European centers points to a clear, windy southeast flow over Cape Town on 4 September, supporting overnight radiative cooling under dry air but limiting extreme drops. Forecast lows cluster between 11–14 °C, aligning with early-spring climatology (historical minima near 10–12 °C) and explaining why specific mid-teens outcomes each carry roughly 25 % market-implied probability. A transient cut-off low passing earlier in the week has given way to stabilizing high pressure, reducing rain chances and keeping the 6 °C-or-below tail at 29.5 %. Traders appear to price residual model spread and potential for slightly stronger winds suppressing the minimum, with the 50 % on 16 °C-or-higher reflecting bets on a milder-than-expected night if subsidence strengthens. Updated NWP runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa na Cidade do Cabo em 4 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa na Cidade do Cabo em 4 de setembro?
6°C ou menos 59%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
12°C 49%
NOVO
NOVO
4 set 2026
6°C ou menos
59%
7°C
35%
8°C
35%
9°C
35%
10°C
49%
11°C
49%
12°C
49%
13°C
49%
14°C
49%
15°C
49%
16°C ou superior
2%
6°C ou menos 59%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
12°C 49%
NOVO
NOVO
4 set 2026
6°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
59%
7°C
$0 Vol.
35%
8°C
$0 Vol.
35%
9°C
$0 Vol.
35%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
49%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C ou superior
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the South African Weather Service, GFS, and European centers points to a clear, windy southeast flow over Cape Town on 4 September, supporting overnight radiative cooling under dry air but limiting extreme drops. Forecast lows cluster between 11–14 °C, aligning with early-spring climatology (historical minima near 10–12 °C) and explaining why specific mid-teens outcomes each carry roughly 25 % market-implied probability. A transient cut-off low passing earlier in the week has given way to stabilizing high pressure, reducing rain chances and keeping the 6 °C-or-below tail at 29.5 %. Traders appear to price residual model spread and potential for slightly stronger winds suppressing the minimum, with the 50 % on 16 °C-or-higher reflecting bets on a milder-than-expected night if subsidence strengthens. Updated NWP runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the South African Weather Service, GFS, and European centers points to a clear, windy southeast flow over Cape Town on 4 September, supporting overnight radiative cooling under dry air but limiting extreme drops. Forecast lows cluster between 11–14 °C, aligning with early-spring climatology (historical minima near 10–12 °C) and explaining why specific mid-teens outcomes each carry roughly 25 % market-implied probability. A transient cut-off low passing earlier in the week has given way to stabilizing high pressure, reducing rain chances and keeping the 6 °C-or-below tail at 29.5 %. Traders appear to price residual model spread and potential for slightly stronger winds suppressing the minimum, with the 50 % on 16 °C-or-higher reflecting bets on a milder-than-expected night if subsidence strengthens. Updated NWP runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data de Término
4 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including the South African Weather Service, GFS, and European centers points to a clear, windy southeast flow over Cape Town on 4 September, supporting overnight radiative cooling under dry air but limiting extreme drops. Forecast lows cluster between 11–14 °C, aligning with early-spring climatology (historical minima near 10–12 °C) and explaining why specific mid-teens outcomes each carry roughly 25 % market-implied probability. A transient cut-off low passing earlier in the week has given way to stabilizing high pressure, reducing rain chances and keeping the 6 °C-or-below tail at 29.5 %. Traders appear to price residual model spread and potential for slightly stronger winds suppressing the minimum, with the 50 % on 16 °C-or-higher reflecting bets on a milder-than-expected night if subsidence strengthens. Updated NWP runs and official SAWS briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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