**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including local meteorological services and international models, indicate a minimum temperature around 24–26°C for Chongqing on September 4 under persistent high-pressure conditions favoring clear skies and limited overnight radiative cooling.** Subtropical humidity and recent daytime highs near 33–36°C moderate nighttime drops, while the absence of significant frontal systems or monsoon influences keeps values well above early-autumn norms. Model consensus shows minimal spread in the 24–26°C band through the short 48-hour window, with any variability tied to local urban heat effects or minor wind shifts rather than broader synoptic changes. Later cooling is projected after September 8–9 with incoming rain, but it does not affect this date. Market-implied odds near 50% on the extremes likely reflect low liquidity and hedging rather than forecast disagreement, as authoritative guidance places the outcome firmly in the mid-20s range.