**Persistent heat and humidity under a strong upper-level ridge are keeping overnight lows elevated across Houston, driving market-implied odds toward the 74–85°F range with closely bunched probabilities around 25% each.** Official NWS guidance and multiple forecast models point to mostly clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s through Wednesday night (August 26), limiting radiational cooling and holding the daily minimum in the low 80s. Recent model consensus shows highs near or above 100°F on the 26th with heat indices exceeding 109°F, consistent with the ongoing Heat Advisory and the absence of any frontal passage or widespread convection that could enhance cooling. Historical analogs for late-August heat waves in the region support minima rarely dropping below the mid-70s without a significant pattern shift, which is not expected until later in the week. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of forecast guidance while acknowledging small model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds that could nudge the low a degree or two in either direction.