Traders see roughly equal 48.5% implied probabilities on a Toronto low of 9 °C or below versus 19 °C or higher for August 26 because official guidance and ensemble models remain split on overnight radiational cooling. Environment Canada currently forecasts a cloudy night with a 30% shower chance and a minimum near 17 °C, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather and the Old Farmer’s Almanac highlights warm, thundery conditions through the 22–26 window that could limit clear-sky cooling. Key differentiators include the timing and extent of any cloud breaks, wind speeds that suppress surface inversions, and the precise track of an upper-level disturbance; even modest clearing could drop readings several degrees below climatological norms of 15–16 °C, whereas persistent cloud or a warmer air mass would keep lows in the upper teens. Resolution hinges on the final observational minimum reported for the calendar day.