Trader sentiment for Istanbul's September 3 minimum temperature reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty, with models showing wide ensemble spreads that support both sub-17°C and 27°C+ outcomes at equal 34.5% implied probabilities. Numerical weather prediction guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, diverges on the strength and timing of a potential trough or ridge influence over the eastern Mediterranean, affecting nocturnal radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Typical early-September climatology features lows near 18–20°C under moderate westerly flow, but recent shifts in sea-surface temperatures and upper-level dynamics could amplify diurnal ranges or suppress them via increased cloud cover. Upcoming model updates and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities as the event window approaches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Istambul no dia 3 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Istambul no dia 3 de setembro?
17°C or below 69%
27°C or higher 69%
18°C 49%
19°C 26%
NOVO
NOVO
3 set 2026
17°C or below
69%
18°C
49%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C or higher
69%
17°C or below 69%
27°C or higher 69%
18°C 49%
19°C 26%
NOVO
NOVO
3 set 2026
17°C or below
$5 Vol.
69%
18°C
$5 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
26%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$5 Vol.
2%
26°C
$5 Vol.
4%
27°C or higher
$5 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Istanbul's September 3 minimum temperature reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty, with models showing wide ensemble spreads that support both sub-17°C and 27°C+ outcomes at equal 34.5% implied probabilities. Numerical weather prediction guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, diverges on the strength and timing of a potential trough or ridge influence over the eastern Mediterranean, affecting nocturnal radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Typical early-September climatology features lows near 18–20°C under moderate westerly flow, but recent shifts in sea-surface temperatures and upper-level dynamics could amplify diurnal ranges or suppress them via increased cloud cover. Upcoming model updates and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$25Data de Término
3 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Istanbul's September 3 minimum temperature reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty, with models showing wide ensemble spreads that support both sub-17°C and 27°C+ outcomes at equal 34.5% implied probabilities. Numerical weather prediction guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, diverges on the strength and timing of a potential trough or ridge influence over the eastern Mediterranean, affecting nocturnal radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Typical early-September climatology features lows near 18–20°C under moderate westerly flow, but recent shifts in sea-surface temperatures and upper-level dynamics could amplify diurnal ranges or suppress them via increased cloud cover. Upcoming model updates and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25Data de Término
3 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Istanbul's September 3 minimum temperature reflects substantial short-term forecast uncertainty, with models showing wide ensemble spreads that support both sub-17°C and 27°C+ outcomes at equal 34.5% implied probabilities. Numerical weather prediction guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, diverges on the strength and timing of a potential trough or ridge influence over the eastern Mediterranean, affecting nocturnal radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing. Typical early-September climatology features lows near 18–20°C under moderate westerly flow, but recent shifts in sea-surface temperatures and upper-level dynamics could amplify diurnal ranges or suppress them via increased cloud cover. Upcoming model updates and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities as the event window approaches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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