**Forecast consensus points to a minimum temperature near 21–22°C overnight into September 2 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and persistent northeasterly flow.** Multiple models and local services (including Turkish Meteorological Service guidance and international ensembles) project daytime highs around 28–30°C with overnight lows stabilizing near 20–22°C, reflecting above-average early-September conditions driven by high pressure and limited radiative cooling. This setup explains the market’s concentration on 22°C (61.5% implied) and nearby outcomes at 20–23°C. Stable synoptic patterns with light-to-moderate northeast winds (typically 5–10 m/s) and dew points in the upper teens have kept temperatures from dropping sharply, consistent with recent observations showing no incoming cold fronts through the first days of September. Historical September minima average closer to 17°C, but the current warm anomaly has shifted trader focus toward milder thresholds. Extreme tails (≤18°C or ≥26°C) carry low probabilities because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no major model disagreement or rapid weather shift is indicated in the next 48 hours. Fresh forecast updates from official agencies and any late adjustments in steering patterns or cloud cover will be the primary near-term catalysts for probability shifts.