Current ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum near 19–20 °C for São Paulo on 31 August amid a persistent heat wave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and warm northwesterly advection. This keeps overnight lows several degrees above the August climatological average of ~12 °C, with official guidance from INMET and international centers converging on similar values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49 % implied probability for 17 °C or below, appears to price in residual model spread and potential for localized cooling under clearing skies, while the elevated odds for higher thresholds capture the dominant warm-air influence expected to hold through the overnight period. Updated model runs and INMET bulletins ahead of resolution will likely refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em São Paulo no dia 31 de agosto?
Temperatura mais baixa em São Paulo no dia 31 de agosto?
27°C ou mais 59%
21°C 49%
17°C ou menos 44%
25°C 36%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
17°C ou menos
44%
18°C
29%
19°C
28%
20°C
26%
21°C
49%
22°C
26%
23°C
1%
24°C
17%
25°C
36%
26°C
21%
27°C ou mais
59%
27°C ou mais 59%
21°C 49%
17°C ou menos 44%
25°C 36%
NOVO
NOVO
31 ago 2026
17°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
44%
18°C
$0 Vol.
29%
19°C
$0 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$220 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
36%
26°C
$0 Vol.
21%
27°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum near 19–20 °C for São Paulo on 31 August amid a persistent heat wave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and warm northwesterly advection. This keeps overnight lows several degrees above the August climatological average of ~12 °C, with official guidance from INMET and international centers converging on similar values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49 % implied probability for 17 °C or below, appears to price in residual model spread and potential for localized cooling under clearing skies, while the elevated odds for higher thresholds capture the dominant warm-air influence expected to hold through the overnight period. Updated model runs and INMET bulletins ahead of resolution will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$220Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum near 19–20 °C for São Paulo on 31 August amid a persistent heat wave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and warm northwesterly advection. This keeps overnight lows several degrees above the August climatological average of ~12 °C, with official guidance from INMET and international centers converging on similar values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49 % implied probability for 17 °C or below, appears to price in residual model spread and potential for localized cooling under clearing skies, while the elevated odds for higher thresholds capture the dominant warm-air influence expected to hold through the overnight period. Updated model runs and INMET bulletins ahead of resolution will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$220Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 29, 2026, 8:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum near 19–20 °C for São Paulo on 31 August amid a persistent heat wave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and warm northwesterly advection. This keeps overnight lows several degrees above the August climatological average of ~12 °C, with official guidance from INMET and international centers converging on similar values. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49 % implied probability for 17 °C or below, appears to price in residual model spread and potential for localized cooling under clearing skies, while the elevated odds for higher thresholds capture the dominant warm-air influence expected to hold through the overnight period. Updated model runs and INMET bulletins ahead of resolution will likely refine these probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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