**Recent model consensus points to a high of 19–22°C in Warsaw on August 29, 2026, with showers and increased cloud cover expected to limit daytime heating after several warmer, sunnier days.** Multiple forecasts from sources including Worldmeteo, Met Office, and global ensembles show a transition from high-pressure conditions on the 27th–28th (highs near 25–27°C under mostly clear skies) to a frontal passage or low-pressure influence by Saturday, bringing southeasterly to southwesterly winds, 40–65% rain probability, and 2–6 mm of precipitation that should suppress peak temperatures. **Key scientific factors differentiating the closely matched 17–21°C outcomes include the exact timing and coverage of showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and evaporative cooling, along with boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds that affect mixing.** Warmer scenarios (near 21°C) assume limited or late-day rain allowing brief insolation peaks, while cooler ones (17–18°C) align with more persistent cloud decks or earlier precipitation. Ensemble spreads and local model runs reflect this uncertainty, with traders weighting official guidance from European centers on the strength of the incoming system and its impact on the daily temperature maximum. Updated short-range forecasts and radar trends in the next 24–48 hours will be the primary drivers of any shifts in these market-implied odds.