Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 5 likely between 23–26°C, driven by persistent high pressure, light winds, and reduced nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. This aligns with the market-implied 73.5% probability on 24°C or below, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and the ongoing warm anomaly relative to the 1991–2020 average low of 17.1°C for the date. Key variables include subtle shifts in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that could allow brief dips near 24°C or sustain readings above 25°C. Updated model runs and observational data from the National Weather Service of Spain in the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 5 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 5 de setembro?
24°C ou menos 76%
25°C 25%
29°C 15%
27°C 14%
NOVO
NOVO
5 set 2026
24°C ou menos
76%
25°C
25%
26°C
2%
27°C
14%
28°C
14%
29°C
15%
30°C
8%
31°C
8%
32°C
4%
33°C
3%
34°C ou mais
8%
24°C ou menos 76%
25°C 25%
29°C 15%
27°C 14%
NOVO
NOVO
5 set 2026
24°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
76%
25°C
$14 Vol.
25%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
14%
28°C
$0 Vol.
14%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C
$0 Vol.
8%
31°C
$0 Vol.
8%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C
$0 Vol.
3%
34°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 5 likely between 23–26°C, driven by persistent high pressure, light winds, and reduced nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. This aligns with the market-implied 73.5% probability on 24°C or below, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and the ongoing warm anomaly relative to the 1991–2020 average low of 17.1°C for the date. Key variables include subtle shifts in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that could allow brief dips near 24°C or sustain readings above 25°C. Updated model runs and observational data from the National Weather Service of Spain in the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14Data de Término
5 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 5 likely between 23–26°C, driven by persistent high pressure, light winds, and reduced nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. This aligns with the market-implied 73.5% probability on 24°C or below, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and the ongoing warm anomaly relative to the 1991–2020 average low of 17.1°C for the date. Key variables include subtle shifts in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that could allow brief dips near 24°C or sustain readings above 25°C. Updated model runs and observational data from the National Weather Service of Spain in the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14Data de Término
5 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models indicate a minimum temperature in Madrid on September 5 likely between 23–26°C, driven by persistent high pressure, light winds, and reduced nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. This aligns with the market-implied 73.5% probability on 24°C or below, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus and the ongoing warm anomaly relative to the 1991–2020 average low of 17.1°C for the date. Key variables include subtle shifts in cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture that could allow brief dips near 24°C or sustain readings above 25°C. Updated model runs and observational data from the National Weather Service of Spain in the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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