Current NWS and private forecast models indicate Miami’s overnight low on August 10 will settle in the low 80s, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around the 80–85 °F bins. Persistent high dew points near 75 °F limit radiational cooling, while light easterly flow off the Atlantic and variable cloud cover from daytime convection keep minimum temperatures elevated relative to climatological norms of 77–79 °F. Minor differences in timing of any late-night showers or wind shifts could nudge the reading one or two degrees, explaining the near-even split among the three leading outcomes and the low probability assigned to values below 78 °F.