**Persistent tropical moisture and scattered thunderstorm activity under a stalled frontal boundary are keeping Miami's overnight minimum temperatures highly variable in the upper 70s to low 80s, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 78–81°F.** Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models show light variable winds, high precipitable water values, and 70–80% storm chances through September 8, which can suppress radiative cooling when clouds linger or enhance it briefly after heavy rain. No tropical cyclones are expected in the Atlantic basin over the next week, and the pattern lacks strong cold-air advection or clear-sky high-pressure dominance that would push lows notably lower or allow them to remain elevated. Historical September minima for Miami average near 78°F, but day-to-day spread of several degrees from timing of convection and boundary-layer moisture explains why traders assign nearly equal weight across multiple two-degree bins rather than converging on a single outcome. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will likely provide the clearest near-term signal ahead of resolution.