Forecast models from agencies including the Israel Meteorological Service indicate the overnight minimum in Tel Aviv on August 22 will likely fall between 25–28°C under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds of 5–10 km/h, and high humidity near 75–85% that limits radiative cooling. Stable high-pressure conditions and sea-surface temperatures around 29–30°C maintain this range, consistent with late-summer climatology where daily lows average near 24–26°C but current guidance shows slightly elevated values. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 25°C, 26°C, and 28°C outcomes because model runs differ modestly on exact timing of the minimum and boundary-layer mixing, while lower probabilities for 22°C or below reflect the absence of any strong cooling mechanism such as increased cloud cover or northerly flow. Updated observations through the evening will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.