Trader consensus strongly favors “No” at 91% implied probability because OpenAI’s latest frontier releases, including the July 2026 GPT-5.6 Sol model with its enhanced reasoning and agentic capabilities, still fall short of AGI benchmarks despite iterative gains in coding and multi-step tasks. Public statements from leadership emphasize ongoing progress toward general intelligence without claiming achievement, while independent verification requirements in partnerships further discourage premature announcements. The remaining months until the December 31, 2026 resolution date offer limited runway for a sudden shift. A credible internal breakthrough or major capability demonstration could still alter outcomes, though such events remain rare given product timelines and safety considerations.