Anthropic's commanding 72% implied probability stems primarily from its September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos-class models, which have seized the top spots on independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 with leading scores above 84. These large language models demonstrate superior capabilities in complex reasoning, agentic workflows, coding, and multilingual tasks compared to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and other rivals. Trader sentiment reflects this sustained leaderboard dominance and Anthropic's focus on verifiable safety practices, including recent commitments to independent evaluators. While OpenAI, Google, and others continue rapid iteration with new variants, the current gap in demonstrated frontier performance creates a strong consensus for Anthropic maintaining the lead through December 2026, though further model drops could narrow it.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de 2026?
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de 2026?
Anthropic 72%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.6%
$1,256,185 Vol.
$1,256,185 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Anthropic
72%
OpenAI
12%
10%
xAI
4%
Meta
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 72%
OpenAI 12%
Google 10%
xAI 3.6%
$1,256,185 Vol.
$1,256,185 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Anthropic
$152,640 Vol.
72%
OpenAI
$118,672 Vol.
12%
$75,870 Vol.
10%
xAI
$104,245 Vol.
4%
Meta
$75,921 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$88,941 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$68,757 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$89,040 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$73,068 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$80,013 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$67,725 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$70,455 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$59,584 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$66,099 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$65,157 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's commanding 72% implied probability stems primarily from its September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos-class models, which have seized the top spots on independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 with leading scores above 84. These large language models demonstrate superior capabilities in complex reasoning, agentic workflows, coding, and multilingual tasks compared to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and other rivals. Trader sentiment reflects this sustained leaderboard dominance and Anthropic's focus on verifiable safety practices, including recent commitments to independent evaluators. While OpenAI, Google, and others continue rapid iteration with new variants, the current gap in demonstrated frontier performance creates a strong consensus for Anthropic maintaining the lead through December 2026, though further model drops could narrow it.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,256,185Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's commanding 72% implied probability stems primarily from its September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos-class models, which have seized the top spots on independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 with leading scores above 84. These large language models demonstrate superior capabilities in complex reasoning, agentic workflows, coding, and multilingual tasks compared to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and other rivals. Trader sentiment reflects this sustained leaderboard dominance and Anthropic's focus on verifiable safety practices, including recent commitments to independent evaluators. While OpenAI, Google, and others continue rapid iteration with new variants, the current gap in demonstrated frontier performance creates a strong consensus for Anthropic maintaining the lead through December 2026, though further model drops could narrow it.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,256,185Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's commanding 72% implied probability stems primarily from its September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos-class models, which have seized the top spots on independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 with leading scores above 84. These large language models demonstrate superior capabilities in complex reasoning, agentic workflows, coding, and multilingual tasks compared to OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and other rivals. Trader sentiment reflects this sustained leaderboard dominance and Anthropic's focus on verifiable safety practices, including recent commitments to independent evaluators. While OpenAI, Google, and others continue rapid iteration with new variants, the current gap in demonstrated frontier performance creates a strong consensus for Anthropic maintaining the lead through December 2026, though further model drops could narrow it.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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