Anthropic’s dominant 82% market-implied probability reflects recent verified advances in its Claude models’ agentic performance, including internal metrics showing Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks end-to-end under supervision and overseeing roughly 30,000 agents with near-perfect monitoring coverage as of August 2026. These developments, alongside strong results on agent benchmarks and tool-use evaluations, have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in autonomous workflows over competitors. OpenAI’s 18% share captures its ongoing strengths in ecosystem breadth and multimodal agents, yet recent comparisons highlight gaps in long-horizon coherence and error rates relative to Claude. With the October resolution approaching, upcoming leaderboard snapshots or model updates could still shift sentiment if they demonstrate meaningful gains from other labs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor agente de IA no final de outubro?
Qual empresa tem o melhor agente de IA no final de outubro?
Anthropic 82%
OpenAI 18%
SpaceXAI 1.7%
Alibaba <1%
$26,376 Vol.
$26,376 Vol.
31 out 2026
Anthropic
82%
OpenAI
18%
SpaceXAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meituan
<1%
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 82%
OpenAI 18%
SpaceXAI 1.7%
Alibaba <1%
$26,376 Vol.
$26,376 Vol.
31 out 2026
Anthropic
$14,299 Vol.
82%
OpenAI
$3,660 Vol.
18%
SpaceXAI
$897 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$522 Vol.
1%
Meta
$706 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$576 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$585 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$372 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$497 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$608 Vol.
<1%
$529 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$456 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$497 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$464 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$464 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$335 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$454 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$454 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 82% market-implied probability reflects recent verified advances in its Claude models’ agentic performance, including internal metrics showing Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks end-to-end under supervision and overseeing roughly 30,000 agents with near-perfect monitoring coverage as of August 2026. These developments, alongside strong results on agent benchmarks and tool-use evaluations, have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in autonomous workflows over competitors. OpenAI’s 18% share captures its ongoing strengths in ecosystem breadth and multimodal agents, yet recent comparisons highlight gaps in long-horizon coherence and error rates relative to Claude. With the October resolution approaching, upcoming leaderboard snapshots or model updates could still shift sentiment if they demonstrate meaningful gains from other labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$26,376Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s dominant 82% market-implied probability reflects recent verified advances in its Claude models’ agentic performance, including internal metrics showing Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks end-to-end under supervision and overseeing roughly 30,000 agents with near-perfect monitoring coverage as of August 2026. These developments, alongside strong results on agent benchmarks and tool-use evaluations, have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in autonomous workflows over competitors. OpenAI’s 18% share captures its ongoing strengths in ecosystem breadth and multimodal agents, yet recent comparisons highlight gaps in long-horizon coherence and error rates relative to Claude. With the October resolution approaching, upcoming leaderboard snapshots or model updates could still shift sentiment if they demonstrate meaningful gains from other labs.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$26,376Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s dominant 82% market-implied probability reflects recent verified advances in its Claude models’ agentic performance, including internal metrics showing Claude leading 26% of R&D tasks end-to-end under supervision and overseeing roughly 30,000 agents with near-perfect monitoring coverage as of August 2026. These developments, alongside strong results on agent benchmarks and tool-use evaluations, have solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s edge in autonomous workflows over competitors. OpenAI’s 18% share captures its ongoing strengths in ecosystem breadth and multimodal agents, yet recent comparisons highlight gaps in long-horizon coherence and error rates relative to Claude. With the October resolution approaching, upcoming leaderboard snapshots or model updates could still shift sentiment if they demonstrate meaningful gains from other labs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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