Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the race for third place among frontier AI labs, with Meta's Muse Spark 1.3, Google's Gemini 3.8 series, and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra delivering competitive gains in agentic workflows, coding benchmarks, and multimodal performance. Trader sentiment reflects these launches' impact on style control capabilities and overall positioning, where Meta holds a narrow edge at 31% implied probability ahead of Google at 28.5% and OpenAI at 20.5%. Differentiators include Meta's efficient tool-use optimizations, Google's real-time voice and flash variants, and OpenAI's strengths in cybersecurity and reasoning tasks, amid converging frontier scores across labs. Further model updates or benchmark shifts before November could still alter the order.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado#3 AI Lab no final de novembro? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
#3 AI Lab no final de novembro? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Meta 31%
Google 29%
OpenAI 21%
Alibaba 7.8%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
Meta
31%
29%
OpenAI
21%
Alibaba
8%
Thinky
6%
Moonshot
5%
Xiaomi
5%
Tencent
5%
Meituan
4%
Anthropic
3%
Nvidia
3%
Z.ai
2%
Amazon
2%
StepFun
2%
Mistral
2%
Baidu
2%
ByteDance
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
MiniMax
1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 31%
Google 29%
OpenAI 21%
Alibaba 7.8%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
Meta
$1,029 Vol.
31%
$635 Vol.
29%
OpenAI
$792 Vol.
21%
Alibaba
$178 Vol.
8%
Thinky
$175 Vol.
6%
Moonshot
$150 Vol.
5%
Xiaomi
$218 Vol.
5%
Tencent
$550 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$569 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$164 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$150 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$150 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$150 Vol.
2%
StepFun
$150 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$141 Vol.
2%
Baidu
$150 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$150 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$162 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$150 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$150 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$150 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the race for third place among frontier AI labs, with Meta's Muse Spark 1.3, Google's Gemini 3.8 series, and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra delivering competitive gains in agentic workflows, coding benchmarks, and multimodal performance. Trader sentiment reflects these launches' impact on style control capabilities and overall positioning, where Meta holds a narrow edge at 31% implied probability ahead of Google at 28.5% and OpenAI at 20.5%. Differentiators include Meta's efficient tool-use optimizations, Google's real-time voice and flash variants, and OpenAI's strengths in cybersecurity and reasoning tasks, amid converging frontier scores across labs. Further model updates or benchmark shifts before November could still alter the order.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$6,116Data de Término
1 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the race for third place among frontier AI labs, with Meta's Muse Spark 1.3, Google's Gemini 3.8 series, and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra delivering competitive gains in agentic workflows, coding benchmarks, and multimodal performance. Trader sentiment reflects these launches' impact on style control capabilities and overall positioning, where Meta holds a narrow edge at 31% implied probability ahead of Google at 28.5% and OpenAI at 20.5%. Differentiators include Meta's efficient tool-use optimizations, Google's real-time voice and flash variants, and OpenAI's strengths in cybersecurity and reasoning tasks, amid converging frontier scores across labs. Further model updates or benchmark shifts before November could still alter the order.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$6,116Data de Término
1 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent September 2026 releases have tightened the race for third place among frontier AI labs, with Meta's Muse Spark 1.3, Google's Gemini 3.8 series, and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra delivering competitive gains in agentic workflows, coding benchmarks, and multimodal performance. Trader sentiment reflects these launches' impact on style control capabilities and overall positioning, where Meta holds a narrow edge at 31% implied probability ahead of Google at 28.5% and OpenAI at 20.5%. Differentiators include Meta's efficient tool-use optimizations, Google's real-time voice and flash variants, and OpenAI's strengths in cybersecurity and reasoning tasks, amid converging frontier scores across labs. Further model updates or benchmark shifts before November could still alter the order.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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