Traders see the next Claude Opus release as highly uncertain, with probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates and a notable 12% chance of no launch by September 30. Recent rumors from developer accounts point to a possible Opus 5.2 rollout on September 17 or 18, or by month-end, following Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus upgrades—Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May. The September 1 launch of Fable 5.1 and ongoing work on efficiency, coding benchmarks, and safety features keep expectations elevated in a competitive field against OpenAI and Google models. Any official announcement, API identifier, or credible benchmark leak could quickly shift these closely matched odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPróximo Claude Opus lançado em...?
Próximo Claude Opus lançado em...?
25 de setembro 16%
24 de setembro 14%
30 de setembro 14%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro 13%
NOVO
NOVO
17 set 2026
17 de setembro
3%
18 de setembro
6%
19 de setembro
1%
20 de setembro
5%
21 de setembro
9%
22 de setembro
10%
23 de setembro
9%
24 de setembro
14%
25 de setembro
16%
26 de setembro
4%
27 de setembro
3%
28 de setembro
7%
29 de setembro
7%
30 de setembro
14%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro
13%
25 de setembro 16%
24 de setembro 14%
30 de setembro 14%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro 13%
NOVO
NOVO
17 set 2026
17 de setembro
$478 Vol.
3%
18 de setembro
$39 Vol.
6%
19 de setembro
$486 Vol.
1%
20 de setembro
$507 Vol.
5%
21 de setembro
$39 Vol.
9%
22 de setembro
$39 Vol.
10%
23 de setembro
$58 Vol.
9%
24 de setembro
$119 Vol.
14%
25 de setembro
$60 Vol.
16%
26 de setembro
$486 Vol.
4%
27 de setembro
$486 Vol.
3%
28 de setembro
$58 Vol.
7%
29 de setembro
$102 Vol.
7%
30 de setembro
$139 Vol.
14%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro
$139 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Claude Opus release as highly uncertain, with probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates and a notable 12% chance of no launch by September 30. Recent rumors from developer accounts point to a possible Opus 5.2 rollout on September 17 or 18, or by month-end, following Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus upgrades—Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May. The September 1 launch of Fable 5.1 and ongoing work on efficiency, coding benchmarks, and safety features keep expectations elevated in a competitive field against OpenAI and Google models. Any official announcement, API identifier, or credible benchmark leak could quickly shift these closely matched odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,387Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Claude Opus release as highly uncertain, with probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates and a notable 12% chance of no launch by September 30. Recent rumors from developer accounts point to a possible Opus 5.2 rollout on September 17 or 18, or by month-end, following Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus upgrades—Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May. The September 1 launch of Fable 5.1 and ongoing work on efficiency, coding benchmarks, and safety features keep expectations elevated in a competitive field against OpenAI and Google models. Any official announcement, API identifier, or credible benchmark leak could quickly shift these closely matched odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,387Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the next Claude Opus release as highly uncertain, with probabilities spread across mid-to-late September dates and a notable 12% chance of no launch by September 30. Recent rumors from developer accounts point to a possible Opus 5.2 rollout on September 17 or 18, or by month-end, following Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus upgrades—Opus 5 arrived July 24 after Opus 4.8 in May. The September 1 launch of Fable 5.1 and ongoing work on efficiency, coding benchmarks, and safety features keep expectations elevated in a competitive field against OpenAI and Google models. Any official announcement, API identifier, or credible benchmark leak could quickly shift these closely matched odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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