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icon for Algum modelo de IA alcançará ___ Pontuação Geral da Arena até 30 de setembro?

Algum modelo de IA alcançará ___ Pontuação Geral da Arena até 30 de setembro?

icon for Algum modelo de IA alcançará ___ Pontuação Geral da Arena até 30 de setembro?

Algum modelo de IA alcançará ___ Pontuação Geral da Arena até 30 de setembro?

$151,522 Vol.

30 set 2026
Polymarket

$151,522 Vol.

Polymarket

1520

$28,188 Vol.

14%

1530

$20,638 Vol.

5%

1540

$10,441 Vol.

7%

1550

$11,511 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and GPT-5.6 in July 2026 drove current top Arena scores to the 1505–1511 range on the lmarena.ai leaderboard, establishing Anthropic and OpenAI as frontrunners in crowdsourced Elo ratings. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental updates, new variants, or rapid iteration from these labs can add the remaining points before the September 30 cutoff, given typical release cycles and the short window. Google’s Gemini 3.x series and xAI’s Grok-4.6 provide competitive pressure but trail slightly, while open-weight efforts like DeepSeek lag further behind. Key catalysts include any mid-August announcements, benchmark leaks, or API rollouts that historically shift Arena rankings within weeks. Market-implied odds reflect the tight timeline and uncertainty around whether frontier models have already hit their near-term ceiling.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$151,522
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Recent releases of Claude Opus 5, Claude Fable 5, and GPT-5.6 in July 2026 drove current top Arena scores to the 1505–1511 range on the lmarena.ai leaderboard, establishing Anthropic and OpenAI as frontrunners in crowdsourced Elo ratings. Trader sentiment hinges on whether incremental updates, new variants, or rapid iteration from these labs can add the remaining points before the September 30 cutoff, given typical release cycles and the short window. Google’s Gemini 3.x series and xAI’s Grok-4.6 provide competitive pressure but trail slightly, while open-weight efforts like DeepSeek lag further behind. Key catalysts include any mid-August announcements, benchmark leaks, or API rollouts that historically shift Arena rankings within weeks. Market-implied odds reflect the tight timeline and uncertainty around whether frontier models have already hit their near-term ceiling.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$151,522
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Algum modelo de IA alcançará ___ Pontuação Geral da Arena até 30 de setembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1510" at 100%, followed by "1520" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Algum modelo de IA alcançará ___ Pontuação Geral da Arena até 30 de setembro?" has generated $151.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Algum modelo de IA alcançará ___ Pontuação Geral da Arena até 30 de setembro?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Algum modelo de IA alcançará ___ Pontuação Geral da Arena até 30 de setembro?" is "1510" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1520" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Algum modelo de IA alcançará ___ Pontuação Geral da Arena até 30 de setembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.