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icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

icon for Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

NOVO
31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$3,084 Vol.

Polymarket

1560

$2,336 Vol.

84%

1580

$204 Vol.

54%

1600

$545 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, released in mid-April 2026, has surged to the top of the Code Arena leaderboard—the community-driven benchmark evaluating agentic coding on real-world web development tasks—with its Thinking variant claiming #1 at a substantial 30-40 point lead over prior models and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. This dominance, confirmed in Arena.ai updates through early May, stems from enhanced planning and execution in frontend coding, pushing implied probabilities higher for threshold breaches by year-end. Competitive pressure intensifies with Meta's Muse Spark entering the top 10 and open-source models narrowing gaps, while upcoming releases from OpenAI, xAI's Grok 4.20 iterations, and Google could accelerate progress toward the target score before December 31. Traders eye these catalysts amid historically rapid benchmark gains.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$3,084
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7, released in mid-April 2026, has surged to the top of the Code Arena leaderboard—the community-driven benchmark evaluating agentic coding on real-world web development tasks—with its Thinking variant claiming #1 at a substantial 30-40 point lead over prior models and rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. This dominance, confirmed in Arena.ai updates through early May, stems from enhanced planning and execution in frontend coding, pushing implied probabilities higher for threshold breaches by year-end. Competitive pressure intensifies with Meta's Muse Spark entering the top 10 and open-source models narrowing gaps, while upcoming releases from OpenAI, xAI's Grok 4.20 iterations, and Google could accelerate progress toward the target score before December 31. Traders eye these catalysts amid historically rapid benchmark gains.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$3,084
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1560" at 84%, followed by "1580" at 54%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?" is "1560" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1580" at 54%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.