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icon for Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?

Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?

icon for Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?

Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?

dez 31

dez 31

$119,656 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$119,656 Vol.

Polymarket

OpenAI

$22,548 Vol.

36%

Google

$17,193 Vol.

20%

Meta

$14,909 Vol.

13%

xAI

$8,816 Vol.

13%

Alibaba

$3,366 Vol.

13%

Moonshot

$6,686 Vol.

11%

Z.ai

$2,545 Vol.

9%

ByteDance

$2,876 Vol.

8%

DeepSeek

$20,581 Vol.

8%

Amazon

$2,787 Vol.

8%

Microsoft

$3,519 Vol.

8%

Baidu

$1,958 Vol.

7%

Meituan

$2,435 Vol.

6%

Mistral

$9,437 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and related variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks, including BenchAlign and composite quality indices, following their mid-2026 releases that emphasized advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities. This has shifted trader sentiment toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding a top-ranked large language model by year-end, though OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series remains competitive in overall performance and ecosystem integration while Google's Gemini 3.x updates, including the recent 3.7 Flash, target efficiency gains. The frontier AI race features rapid iteration cycles, with potential catalysts including further Anthropic or OpenAI launches and benchmark refreshes that could alter the leaderboard before December 31. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty amid ongoing model improvements across labs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$119,656
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and related variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks, including BenchAlign and composite quality indices, following their mid-2026 releases that emphasized advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities. This has shifted trader sentiment toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding a top-ranked large language model by year-end, though OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series remains competitive in overall performance and ecosystem integration while Google's Gemini 3.x updates, including the recent 3.7 Flash, target efficiency gains. The frontier AI race features rapid iteration cycles, with potential catalysts including further Anthropic or OpenAI launches and benchmark refreshes that could alter the leaderboard before December 31. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty amid ongoing model improvements across labs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$119,656
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "OpenAI" at 36%, followed by "Google" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?" has generated $119.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?" is "OpenAI" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.