Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and related variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks, including BenchAlign and composite quality indices, following their mid-2026 releases that emphasized advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities. This has shifted trader sentiment toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding a top-ranked large language model by year-end, though OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series remains competitive in overall performance and ecosystem integration while Google's Gemini 3.x updates, including the recent 3.7 Flash, target efficiency gains. The frontier AI race features rapid iteration cycles, with potential catalysts including further Anthropic or OpenAI launches and benchmark refreshes that could alter the leaderboard before December 31. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty amid ongoing model improvements across labs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?
$119,656 Vol.
OpenAI
36%
20%
Meta
13%
xAI
13%
Alibaba
13%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
$119,656 Vol.
OpenAI
36%
20%
Meta
13%
xAI
13%
Alibaba
13%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and related variants currently lead multiple independent benchmarks, including BenchAlign and composite quality indices, following their mid-2026 releases that emphasized advanced reasoning and agentic capabilities. This has shifted trader sentiment toward Anthropic as the frontrunner for holding a top-ranked large language model by year-end, though OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series remains competitive in overall performance and ecosystem integration while Google's Gemini 3.x updates, including the recent 3.7 Flash, target efficiency gains. The frontier AI race features rapid iteration cycles, with potential catalysts including further Anthropic or OpenAI launches and benchmark refreshes that could alter the leaderboard before December 31. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty amid ongoing model improvements across labs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado



Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions