Anthropic's July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 and related variants has driven recent leaderboard gains, with the model frequently claiming top intelligence scores on benchmarks like GPQA Diamond and composite quality indices through advanced reasoning modes. This positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3 series in multiple independent evaluations, though margins remain narrow as all three labs iterate rapidly on frontier large language models. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capabilities in coding, multimodal tasks, and agentic workflows rather than marketing claims, with trader sentiment reflecting how these releases shift aggregated benchmarks before year-end. Further model updates or capability demonstrations from these companies represent key catalysts that could alter the market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais empresas terão um modelo de IA número1 até 31 de dezembro?
$119,657 Vol.
OpenAI
35%
20%
Meta
13%
Alibaba
13%
xAI
13%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
$119,657 Vol.
OpenAI
35%
20%
Meta
13%
Alibaba
13%
xAI
13%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's July 2026 release of Claude Opus 5 and related variants has driven recent leaderboard gains, with the model frequently claiming top intelligence scores on benchmarks like GPQA Diamond and composite quality indices through advanced reasoning modes. This positions Anthropic ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family and Google's Gemini 3 series in multiple independent evaluations, though margins remain narrow as all three labs iterate rapidly on frontier large language models. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated capabilities in coding, multimodal tasks, and agentic workflows rather than marketing claims, with trader sentiment reflecting how these releases shift aggregated benchmarks before year-end. Further model updates or capability demonstrations from these companies represent key catalysts that could alter the market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado



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