Trader consensus on the Polymarket market heavily favors no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven by current top scores clustered around 1507 for Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and nearby models from Meta, Google, and OpenAI. With roughly four months left in the year, the roughly 40-point gap to the threshold appears difficult to close given typical monthly gains from iterative large language model releases. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning due to its repeated leaderboard leadership in 2026 through Claude Opus 5 and Fable variants, though competitive pressure from Meta's Muse Spark and Google's Gemini 3 series limits its implied probability. No major breakthroughs have narrowed the remaining distance substantially in recent weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?
Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?
Nenhum em 2026 85%
Anthropic 13%
Google 3.8%
OpenAI 1.6%
$119,283 Vol.
$119,283 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Nenhum em 2026
85%
Anthropic
13%
4%
OpenAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Nenhum em 2026 85%
Anthropic 13%
Google 3.8%
OpenAI 1.6%
$119,283 Vol.
$119,283 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Nenhum em 2026
$25,729 Vol.
85%
Anthropic
$15,450 Vol.
13%
$11,366 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$13,598 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$11,338 Vol.
1%
xAI
$9,265 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$13,377 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,686 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on the Polymarket market heavily favors no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven by current top scores clustered around 1507 for Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and nearby models from Meta, Google, and OpenAI. With roughly four months left in the year, the roughly 40-point gap to the threshold appears difficult to close given typical monthly gains from iterative large language model releases. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning due to its repeated leaderboard leadership in 2026 through Claude Opus 5 and Fable variants, though competitive pressure from Meta's Muse Spark and Google's Gemini 3 series limits its implied probability. No major breakthroughs have narrowed the remaining distance substantially in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$119,283Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on the Polymarket market heavily favors no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven by current top scores clustered around 1507 for Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and nearby models from Meta, Google, and OpenAI. With roughly four months left in the year, the roughly 40-point gap to the threshold appears difficult to close given typical monthly gains from iterative large language model releases. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning due to its repeated leaderboard leadership in 2026 through Claude Opus 5 and Fable variants, though competitive pressure from Meta's Muse Spark and Google's Gemini 3 series limits its implied probability. No major breakthroughs have narrowed the remaining distance substantially in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$119,283Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the Polymarket market heavily favors no AI reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven by current top scores clustered around 1507 for Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and nearby models from Meta, Google, and OpenAI. With roughly four months left in the year, the roughly 40-point gap to the threshold appears difficult to close given typical monthly gains from iterative large language model releases. Anthropic holds the strongest positioning due to its repeated leaderboard leadership in 2026 through Claude Opus 5 and Fable variants, though competitive pressure from Meta's Muse Spark and Google's Gemini 3 series limits its implied probability. No major breakthroughs have narrowed the remaining distance substantially in recent weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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