Pierre Poilievre secured a decisive 87.4% endorsement in the Conservative Party’s mandatory leadership review at the January 2026 national convention in Calgary, following the party’s April 2025 federal election defeat. This strong internal backing, which exceeded Stephen Harper’s comparable 2005 result, has stabilized his position as leader amid ongoing polling deficits against Prime Minister Mark Carney and lower personal approval ratings. With the next scheduled election not due until 2029 and no active challenges or constitutional triggers emerging in the first half of 2026, trader consensus assigns an 87.5% probability that Poilievre will remain in place through December 31, 2026. Recent surveys continue to highlight competitive dynamics within the party base, yet the absence of imminent procedural or caucus-driven pressure supports expectations of continuity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$148,679 Vol.
$148,679 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$148,679 Vol.
$148,679 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pierre Poilievre secured a decisive 87.4% endorsement in the Conservative Party’s mandatory leadership review at the January 2026 national convention in Calgary, following the party’s April 2025 federal election defeat. This strong internal backing, which exceeded Stephen Harper’s comparable 2005 result, has stabilized his position as leader amid ongoing polling deficits against Prime Minister Mark Carney and lower personal approval ratings. With the next scheduled election not due until 2029 and no active challenges or constitutional triggers emerging in the first half of 2026, trader consensus assigns an 87.5% probability that Poilievre will remain in place through December 31, 2026. Recent surveys continue to highlight competitive dynamics within the party base, yet the absence of imminent procedural or caucus-driven pressure supports expectations of continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ET
Volume
$148,679Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pierre Poilievre secured a decisive 87.4% endorsement in the Conservative Party’s mandatory leadership review at the January 2026 national convention in Calgary, following the party’s April 2025 federal election defeat. This strong internal backing, which exceeded Stephen Harper’s comparable 2005 result, has stabilized his position as leader amid ongoing polling deficits against Prime Minister Mark Carney and lower personal approval ratings. With the next scheduled election not due until 2029 and no active challenges or constitutional triggers emerging in the first half of 2026, trader consensus assigns an 87.5% probability that Poilievre will remain in place through December 31, 2026. Recent surveys continue to highlight competitive dynamics within the party base, yet the absence of imminent procedural or caucus-driven pressure supports expectations of continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$148,679Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pierre Poilievre secured a decisive 87.4% endorsement in the Conservative Party’s mandatory leadership review at the January 2026 national convention in Calgary, following the party’s April 2025 federal election defeat. This strong internal backing, which exceeded Stephen Harper’s comparable 2005 result, has stabilized his position as leader amid ongoing polling deficits against Prime Minister Mark Carney and lower personal approval ratings. With the next scheduled election not due until 2029 and no active challenges or constitutional triggers emerging in the first half of 2026, trader consensus assigns an 87.5% probability that Poilievre will remain in place through December 31, 2026. Recent surveys continue to highlight competitive dynamics within the party base, yet the absence of imminent procedural or caucus-driven pressure supports expectations of continuity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions