Skip to main content
icon for Consciência situacional Venda antrópica confirmada até 31 de agosto?
Tecnologia·Leopold Aschenbrenner

Consciência situacional Venda antrópica confirmada até 31 de agosto?

icon for Consciência situacional Venda antrópica confirmada até 31 de agosto?
Tecnologia·Leopold Aschenbrenner

Consciência situacional Venda antrópica confirmada até 31 de agosto?

Sim

19% chance
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

19% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify. New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify. Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent reports on July 30 confirm that Situational Awareness sold most of its public AI-related holdings to Citadel while explicitly retaining its private stake in Anthropic, valued near $965 billion post its May Series H round. The fund and its representatives have denied actively marketing or negotiating a sale of the Anthropic position, despite earlier rumors tied to margin pressures and portfolio repositioning. This outcome aligns with the 66.5% market-implied probability on "No," reflecting limited near-term catalysts for confirmation before the August 31 deadline amid the firm's shift toward a private holding structure focused on AI assets. Traders appear to weigh the speed of any potential deal against regulatory scrutiny and Anthropic's own IPO preparations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify.

New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify.

Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,816
Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify. New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify. Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify. New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify. Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent reports on July 30 confirm that Situational Awareness sold most of its public AI-related holdings to Citadel while explicitly retaining its private stake in Anthropic, valued near $965 billion post its May Series H round. The fund and its representatives have denied actively marketing or negotiating a sale of the Anthropic position, despite earlier rumors tied to margin pressures and portfolio repositioning. This outcome aligns with the 66.5% market-implied probability on "No," reflecting limited near-term catalysts for confirmation before the August 31 deadline amid the firm's shift toward a private holding structure focused on AI assets. Traders appear to weigh the speed of any potential deal against regulatory scrutiny and Anthropic's own IPO preparations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify.

New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify.

Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,816
Mercado Aberto
Jul 30, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify. New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify. Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Relacionado

icon for Anthropic foi adquirida antes de 2027?

Anthropic foi adquirida antes de 2027?

4%
Sim
icon for Situational Awareness anuncia encerramento do fundo até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

Situational Awareness anuncia encerramento do fundo até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

19%
Sim
icon for A Situational Awareness levantará novo capital até 31 de agosto?

A Situational Awareness levantará novo capital até 31 de agosto?

37%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Consciência situacional Venda antrópica confirmada até 31 de agosto?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Confirmação da venda Situational Awareness Anthropic até 31 de agosto?" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Consciência situacional Venda antrópica confirmada até 31 de agosto?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Consciência situacional Venda antrópica confirmada até 31 de agosto?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Consciência situacional Venda antrópica confirmada até 31 de agosto?" is "Confirmação da venda Situational Awareness Anthropic até 31 de agosto?" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Consciência situacional Venda antrópica confirmada até 31 de agosto?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.