Recent statements from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals of continuity, absent any health concerns or formal announcements, have shaped trader consensus around the 66% probability of no vacancy. At ages 77 and 76, the two oldest justices remain the focus of speculation under President Trump, who could appoint a replacement and secure a fourth nomination. Yet without concrete developments shifting their reported intentions, markets continue to price in stability for the remainder of the calendar year.