No U.S. Supreme Court vacancy has materialized through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus that none will occur this calendar year. The two oldest justices, Clarence Thomas (age 78) and Samuel Alito (age 76), have issued no retirement announcements or signals of declining health, and both have previously indicated plans to serve through at least the end of the term. Alito addressed speculation directly in early August, stating he is “here for another term.” Younger members, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor (both 71), also show no reported departure factors. Earlier 2026 discussion of strategic timing ahead of midterms produced no confirmed exits or official actions, leaving the Court’s composition unchanged and reinforcing the implied probability against a vacancy.