Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas by defeating four-term incumbent John Cornyn 63.5% to 36.5% in the May 26 runoff, producing a roughly 27-point margin that aligns with the market's dominant 25–30% bracket. Lower runoff turnout, driven by a sharp drop in Cornyn supporters while Paxton's base held steady from the March primary, combined with Trump's endorsement and spending advantages, produced the decisive result. Official certification and any remaining vote tabulation or recount processes represent the primary remaining factors that could affect final resolution, though the scale of the reported margin leaves limited room for material shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTexas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)
Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)
Paxton 25–30% 99.4%
Paxton 30%+ <1%
Paxton 20–25% <1%
Paxton 15–20% <1%
$137,569 Vol.
$137,569 Vol.
26 mai 2026
Paxton 30%+
1%
Paxton 25–30%
99%
Paxton 20–25%
<1%
Paxton 15–20%
<1%
Paxton 10–15%
<1%
Paxton 5–10%
<1%
Paxton 0–5%
<1%
Cornyn Win
<1%
Other
<1%
Paxton 25–30% 99.4%
Paxton 30%+ <1%
Paxton 20–25% <1%
Paxton 15–20% <1%
$137,569 Vol.
$137,569 Vol.
26 mai 2026
Paxton 30%+
$41,717 Vol.
1%
Paxton 25–30%
$21,598 Vol.
99%
Paxton 20–25%
$11,777 Vol.
<1%
Paxton 15–20%
$16,977 Vol.
<1%
Paxton 10–15%
$17,944 Vol.
<1%
Paxton 5–10%
$9,695 Vol.
<1%
Paxton 0–5%
$13,840 Vol.
<1%
Cornyn Win
$1,450 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,572 Vol.
<1%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas by defeating four-term incumbent John Cornyn 63.5% to 36.5% in the May 26 runoff, producing a roughly 27-point margin that aligns with the market's dominant 25–30% bracket. Lower runoff turnout, driven by a sharp drop in Cornyn supporters while Paxton's base held steady from the March primary, combined with Trump's endorsement and spending advantages, produced the decisive result. Official certification and any remaining vote tabulation or recount processes represent the primary remaining factors that could affect final resolution, though the scale of the reported margin leaves limited room for material shifts.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: May 22, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$137,569Data de Término
26 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 22, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas by defeating four-term incumbent John Cornyn 63.5% to 36.5% in the May 26 runoff, producing a roughly 27-point margin that aligns with the market's dominant 25–30% bracket. Lower runoff turnout, driven by a sharp drop in Cornyn supporters while Paxton's base held steady from the March primary, combined with Trump's endorsement and spending advantages, produced the decisive result. Official certification and any remaining vote tabulation or recount processes represent the primary remaining factors that could affect final resolution, though the scale of the reported margin leaves limited room for material shifts.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$137,569Data de Término
26 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 22, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas by defeating four-term incumbent John Cornyn 63.5% to 36.5% in the May 26 runoff, producing a roughly 27-point margin that aligns with the market's dominant 25–30% bracket. Lower runoff turnout, driven by a sharp drop in Cornyn supporters while Paxton's base held steady from the March primary, combined with Trump's endorsement and spending advantages, produced the decisive result. Official certification and any remaining vote tabulation or recount processes represent the primary remaining factors that could affect final resolution, though the scale of the reported margin leaves limited room for material shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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