US bank failure by June 30?

Name: US bank failure by June 30?
Start: 2026-05-26T23:05:34.683Z
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

jun 30

28% chance

NOVO

30 jun 2026

28% chance

NOVO

30 jun 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US bank failure by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 42% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 42¢, the market collectively assigns a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"US bank failure by June 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "US bank failure by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US bank failure by June 30?" is 42% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US bank failure by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "US bank failure by June 30?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “US bank failure by June 30?” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "US bank failure by June 30?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of "Yes" or "No" represents the market's implied probability. A "Yes" price of 42¢ for "US bank failure by June 30?" means traders collectively believe there is a 42% chance this event will happen. If you buy "Yes" at 42¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 58¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

The "US bank failure by June 30?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "US bank failure by June 30?" market has an active community of 49 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "US bank failure by June 30?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

US bank failure by June 30?

US bank failure by June 30?

Livro de Pedidos

Livro de Pedidos

Frequently Asked Questions

US bank failure by June 30?

US bank failure by June 30?

Livro de Pedidos

Livro de Pedidos

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Comentários (49)

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "US bank failure by June 30?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "US bank failure by June 30?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "US bank failure by June 30?"?

What are the current odds for "US bank failure by June 30?"?

How will "US bank failure by June 30?" be resolved?

Can I follow "US bank failure by June 30?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "US bank failure by June 30?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "US bank failure by June 30?"?

What does a price of 42¢ for "Yes" mean?

When does the "US bank failure by June 30?" market close?

What are traders saying about "US bank failure by June 30?"?

What is Polymarket?