FIFA's repeated official confirmations that Iran will compete in the 2026 World Cup, combined with approved logistical adjustments such as a training base in Tijuana and matchday travel into the United States, underpin the market's overwhelming 99.8% probability on no replacement. Recent statements from President Gianni Infantino and the resolution of base-camp concerns have eliminated prior uncertainty tied to regional conflict and visa issues. Replacement discussions, including rejected proposals involving Italy, have faded, with any hypothetical substitution governed by FIFA statutes favoring an AFC team like Iraq or the UAE. A late Iranian withdrawal due to escalated security or entry barriers remains the only plausible path to altering the outcome before the group stage begins.