Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the possibility of referendums on institutional, economic, and social issues during his presidency but has consistently pursued parliamentary routes instead. In 2026, with his term ending ahead of the April 2027 presidential election and municipal polls scheduled for March, the government has prioritized legislative fixes for flagship measures such as the revised social media age restrictions following the Constitutional Council’s August ruling. Recent actions, including the signing of the assisted dying law, reinforce this pattern of working through the Assemblée nationale and Sénat amid a fragmented parliament. Traders assign a 92% probability to no referendum by December 31, reflecting the absence of any announced initiative or procedural momentum in the remaining months of the year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
8% chance
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
Sim
8% chance
NOVO
NOVO
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the possibility of referendums on institutional, economic, and social issues during his presidency but has consistently pursued parliamentary routes instead. In 2026, with his term ending ahead of the April 2027 presidential election and municipal polls scheduled for March, the government has prioritized legislative fixes for flagship measures such as the revised social media age restrictions following the Constitutional Council’s August ruling. Recent actions, including the signing of the assisted dying law, reinforce this pattern of working through the Assemblée nationale and Sénat amid a fragmented parliament. Traders assign a 92% probability to no referendum by December 31, reflecting the absence of any announced initiative or procedural momentum in the remaining months of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the possibility of referendums on institutional, economic, and social issues during his presidency but has consistently pursued parliamentary routes instead. In 2026, with his term ending ahead of the April 2027 presidential election and municipal polls scheduled for March, the government has prioritized legislative fixes for flagship measures such as the revised social media age restrictions following the Constitutional Council’s August ruling. Recent actions, including the signing of the assisted dying law, reinforce this pattern of working through the Assemblée nationale and Sénat amid a fragmented parliament. Traders assign a 92% probability to no referendum by December 31, reflecting the absence of any announced initiative or procedural momentum in the remaining months of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the possibility of referendums on institutional, economic, and social issues during his presidency but has consistently pursued parliamentary routes instead. In 2026, with his term ending ahead of the April 2027 presidential election and municipal polls scheduled for March, the government has prioritized legislative fixes for flagship measures such as the revised social media age restrictions following the Constitutional Council’s August ruling. Recent actions, including the signing of the assisted dying law, reinforce this pattern of working through the Assemblée nationale and Sénat amid a fragmented parliament. Traders assign a 92% probability to no referendum by December 31, reflecting the absence of any announced initiative or procedural momentum in the remaining months of the year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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