France's fragmented National Assembly, lacking a stable majority, is the main factor underpinning the 57% market-implied probability that no 2027 budget passes by December 31. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu plans to table a proposal targeting €30 billion in spending reductions and a deficit below 5.1% of GDP by late September, yet growth forecasts have been cut to 0.5% for 2026 amid elevated borrowing costs and political resistance to cuts affecting retirees or public services. Opposition parties have signaled potential censure motions, echoing prior years' reliance on special laws or Article 49.3. Traders are pricing in delays from parliamentary negotiations and the shadow of the 2027 presidential election, though a minimalist compromise could still shift odds if cross-party support emerges during October debates.