Traders assign a 96.8% probability that no US state legislature will hold a vote on secession by June 30, 2026, due to the complete absence of introduced bills, committee hearings, or floor debates on the topic across all fifty states. Constitutional barriers, including the Supreme Court precedent established in Texas v. White, combined with procedural hurdles such as supermajority requirements and gubernatorial vetoes, make passage of any such resolution highly improbable in the remaining weeks. Current legislative calendars prioritize appropriations, budget reconciliation, and continuing resolutions rather than questions of state sovereignty or union membership. While a sudden national crisis could theoretically trigger emergency sessions, no polling trends, primary challenges, or official statements indicate momentum toward this outcome before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакой-нибудь законодательный орган штата США проголосует за отделение до 30 июня 2026 года?
Какой-нибудь законодательный орган штата США проголосует за отделение до 30 июня 2026 года?
Да
$28,234 Объем
$28,234 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$28,234 Объем
$28,234 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% probability that no US state legislature will hold a vote on secession by June 30, 2026, due to the complete absence of introduced bills, committee hearings, or floor debates on the topic across all fifty states. Constitutional barriers, including the Supreme Court precedent established in Texas v. White, combined with procedural hurdles such as supermajority requirements and gubernatorial vetoes, make passage of any such resolution highly improbable in the remaining weeks. Current legislative calendars prioritize appropriations, budget reconciliation, and continuing resolutions rather than questions of state sovereignty or union membership. While a sudden national crisis could theoretically trigger emergency sessions, no polling trends, primary challenges, or official statements indicate momentum toward this outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Объем
$28,234Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.8% probability that no US state legislature will hold a vote on secession by June 30, 2026, due to the complete absence of introduced bills, committee hearings, or floor debates on the topic across all fifty states. Constitutional barriers, including the Supreme Court precedent established in Texas v. White, combined with procedural hurdles such as supermajority requirements and gubernatorial vetoes, make passage of any such resolution highly improbable in the remaining weeks. Current legislative calendars prioritize appropriations, budget reconciliation, and continuing resolutions rather than questions of state sovereignty or union membership. While a sudden national crisis could theoretically trigger emergency sessions, no polling trends, primary challenges, or official statements indicate momentum toward this outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$28,234Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.8% probability that no US state legislature will hold a vote on secession by June 30, 2026, due to the complete absence of introduced bills, committee hearings, or floor debates on the topic across all fifty states. Constitutional barriers, including the Supreme Court precedent established in Texas v. White, combined with procedural hurdles such as supermajority requirements and gubernatorial vetoes, make passage of any such resolution highly improbable in the remaining weeks. Current legislative calendars prioritize appropriations, budget reconciliation, and continuing resolutions rather than questions of state sovereignty or union membership. While a sudden national crisis could theoretically trigger emergency sessions, no polling trends, primary challenges, or official statements indicate momentum toward this outcome before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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