The tight contest in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Republican primary stems from three candidates—Joseph Chaplik, Jay Feely, and John Trobough—dividing conservative voters ahead of the July 21 vote. Feely’s Trump endorsement has boosted his profile and fundraising, yet Chaplik’s six years in the state legislature provide a ground-game advantage in Scottsdale and surrounding suburbs, while Trobough draws support as a political newcomer. A late-June debate highlighted broad agreement on border security, election reforms, and the Trump agenda, limiting differentiation on issues. Recent polls show single-digit spreads, and early voting has already begun. Trader consensus on narrow or “other” outcomes reflects uncertainty over which candidate’s coalition will consolidate most effectively in the final two weeks, with late endorsements, turnout patterns, or additional polling likely to widen margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоFeely 10–15% 45%
Feely 20–25% 45%
Feely 15–20% 45%
Feely 5–10% 45%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 авг. 2026 г.
Feely 25%+
44%
Feely 20–25%
45%
Feely 15–20%
45%
Feely 10–15%
45%
Feely 5–10%
45%
Feely <5%
45%
Chaplik <5%
44%
Chaplik 5–10%
44%
Chaplik 10%+
44%
Feely 10–15% 45%
Feely 20–25% 45%
Feely 15–20% 45%
Feely 5–10% 45%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 авг. 2026 г.
Feely 25%+
$0 Объем
44%
Feely 20–25%
$0 Объем
45%
Feely 15–20%
$0 Объем
45%
Feely 10–15%
$0 Объем
45%
Feely 5–10%
$0 Объем
45%
Feely <5%
$0 Объем
45%
Chaplik <5%
$0 Объем
44%
Chaplik 5–10%
$0 Объем
44%
Chaplik 10%+
$0 Объем
44%
The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The tight contest in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Republican primary stems from three candidates—Joseph Chaplik, Jay Feely, and John Trobough—dividing conservative voters ahead of the July 21 vote. Feely’s Trump endorsement has boosted his profile and fundraising, yet Chaplik’s six years in the state legislature provide a ground-game advantage in Scottsdale and surrounding suburbs, while Trobough draws support as a political newcomer. A late-June debate highlighted broad agreement on border security, election reforms, and the Trump agenda, limiting differentiation on issues. Recent polls show single-digit spreads, and early voting has already begun. Trader consensus on narrow or “other” outcomes reflects uncertainty over which candidate’s coalition will consolidate most effectively in the final two weeks, with late endorsements, turnout patterns, or additional polling likely to widen margins.
The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The tight contest in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Republican primary stems from three candidates—Joseph Chaplik, Jay Feely, and John Trobough—dividing conservative voters ahead of the July 21 vote. Feely’s Trump endorsement has boosted his profile and fundraising, yet Chaplik’s six years in the state legislature provide a ground-game advantage in Scottsdale and surrounding suburbs, while Trobough draws support as a political newcomer. A late-June debate highlighted broad agreement on border security, election reforms, and the Trump agenda, limiting differentiation on issues. Recent polls show single-digit spreads, and early voting has already begun. Trader consensus on narrow or “other” outcomes reflects uncertainty over which candidate’s coalition will consolidate most effectively in the final two weeks, with late endorsements, turnout patterns, or additional polling likely to widen margins.
The AZ-01 Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the AZ-01 Republican Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Arizona, such as official statewide results published by the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 8, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District Republican primary stems from three candidates—Joseph Chaplik, Jay Feely, and John Trobough—dividing conservative voters ahead of the July 21 vote. Feely’s Trump endorsement has boosted his profile and fundraising, yet Chaplik’s six years in the state legislature provide a ground-game advantage in Scottsdale and surrounding suburbs, while Trobough draws support as a political newcomer. A late-June debate highlighted broad agreement on border security, election reforms, and the Trump agenda, limiting differentiation on issues. Recent polls show single-digit spreads, and early voting has already begun. Trader consensus on narrow or “other” outcomes reflects uncertainty over which candidate’s coalition will consolidate most effectively in the final two weeks, with late endorsements, turnout patterns, or additional polling likely to widen margins.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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