Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices and pushed UK CPI inflation to 3.3 percent in March 2026, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 percent at its April meeting while warning of potential upward pressure later in the year. This backdrop underpins the 62.0 percent implied probability of no change at the July 30 decision, with traders assigning a 32.5 percent chance to a 25-basis-point hike as the next most likely outcome. Market-implied odds reflect caution over second-round effects from higher fuel and utility costs, tempered by the central bank’s data-dependent stance and the intervening June 18 meeting. Recent official projections show inflation rising further in the near term before easing toward the 2 percent target, while labor-market indicators remain stable. Traders are monitoring the next CPI release and any shift in FOMC or ECB signals for clues on global rate paths.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоBank of England decision in July?
Bank of England decision in July?
No change 62%
25 bps increase 33%
25 bps decrease 6.2%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июл. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
33%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 33%
25 bps decrease 6.2%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июл. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$198 Объем
4%
25 bps decrease
$37 Объем
6%
No change
$49 Объем
62%
25 bps increase
$38 Объем
33%
50+ bps increase
$37 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices and pushed UK CPI inflation to 3.3 percent in March 2026, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 percent at its April meeting while warning of potential upward pressure later in the year. This backdrop underpins the 62.0 percent implied probability of no change at the July 30 decision, with traders assigning a 32.5 percent chance to a 25-basis-point hike as the next most likely outcome. Market-implied odds reflect caution over second-round effects from higher fuel and utility costs, tempered by the central bank’s data-dependent stance and the intervening June 18 meeting. Recent official projections show inflation rising further in the near term before easing toward the 2 percent target, while labor-market indicators remain stable. Traders are monitoring the next CPI release and any shift in FOMC or ECB signals for clues on global rate paths.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Объем
$358Дата окончания
30 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices and pushed UK CPI inflation to 3.3 percent in March 2026, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 percent at its April meeting while warning of potential upward pressure later in the year. This backdrop underpins the 62.0 percent implied probability of no change at the July 30 decision, with traders assigning a 32.5 percent chance to a 25-basis-point hike as the next most likely outcome. Market-implied odds reflect caution over second-round effects from higher fuel and utility costs, tempered by the central bank’s data-dependent stance and the intervening June 18 meeting. Recent official projections show inflation rising further in the near term before easing toward the 2 percent target, while labor-market indicators remain stable. Traders are monitoring the next CPI release and any shift in FOMC or ECB signals for clues on global rate paths.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for July 30, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's July 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Объем
$358Дата окончания
30 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices and pushed UK CPI inflation to 3.3 percent in March 2026, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 percent at its April meeting while warning of potential upward pressure later in the year. This backdrop underpins the 62.0 percent implied probability of no change at the July 30 decision, with traders assigning a 32.5 percent chance to a 25-basis-point hike as the next most likely outcome. Market-implied odds reflect caution over second-round effects from higher fuel and utility costs, tempered by the central bank’s data-dependent stance and the intervening June 18 meeting. Recent official projections show inflation rising further in the near term before easing toward the 2 percent target, while labor-market indicators remain stable. Traders are monitoring the next CPI release and any shift in FOMC or ECB signals for clues on global rate paths.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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