Recent developments in the Labour Party have driven trader positioning on the next UK prime minister, with Andy Burnham emerging as the clear leader amid open speculation of a leadership transition. Keir Starmer faces mounting internal pressure following cabinet resignations and calls from dozens of MPs for him to set a departure timetable after poor local election results. Burnham’s announcement to contest the Makerfield by-election has accelerated his path back to Parliament, positioning him to launch a formal challenge if successful. Angela Rayner’s clearance on prior tax matters and Wes Streeting’s resignation have also elevated their profiles as potential contenders. The 26.5 percent implied probability attached to no change in 2026 reflects uncertainty over whether Starmer can stabilize his position before any contest materializes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЭнди Бёрнем 45.6%
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году 27%
Анджела Рейнэр 10%
Уэс Стритинг 6%
$7,017,665 Объем
$7,017,665 Объем
Энди Бёрнем
46%
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году
27%
Анджела Рейнэр
10%
Уэс Стритинг
6%
Эд Милибэнд
5%
Ал Карнс
2%
Шабана Махмуд
1%
Найджел Фараж
1%
Иветт Купер
1%
Дэвид Лемми
<1%
Люси Пауэлл
<1%
Рэйчел Ривз
<1%
Джон Хили
<1%
Кеми Баденох
<1%
Борис Джонсон
<1%
Эд Дейви
<1%
Бриджет Филипсон
<1%
Руперт Лоу
<1%
Роберт Дженрик
<1%
Джеймс Клеверли
<1%
Даррен Джонс
<1%
Энди Бёрнем 45.6%
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году 27%
Анджела Рейнэр 10%
Уэс Стритинг 6%
$7,017,665 Объем
$7,017,665 Объем
Энди Бёрнем
46%
Новый премьер-министр не будет назначен в 2026 году
27%
Анджела Рейнэр
10%
Уэс Стритинг
6%
Эд Милибэнд
5%
Ал Карнс
2%
Шабана Махмуд
1%
Найджел Фараж
1%
Иветт Купер
1%
Дэвид Лемми
<1%
Люси Пауэлл
<1%
Рэйчел Ривз
<1%
Джон Хили
<1%
Кеми Баденох
<1%
Борис Джонсон
<1%
Эд Дейви
<1%
Бриджет Филипсон
<1%
Руперт Лоу
<1%
Роберт Дженрик
<1%
Джеймс Клеверли
<1%
Даррен Джонс
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent developments in the Labour Party have driven trader positioning on the next UK prime minister, with Andy Burnham emerging as the clear leader amid open speculation of a leadership transition. Keir Starmer faces mounting internal pressure following cabinet resignations and calls from dozens of MPs for him to set a departure timetable after poor local election results. Burnham’s announcement to contest the Makerfield by-election has accelerated his path back to Parliament, positioning him to launch a formal challenge if successful. Angela Rayner’s clearance on prior tax matters and Wes Streeting’s resignation have also elevated their profiles as potential contenders. The 26.5 percent implied probability attached to no change in 2026 reflects uncertainty over whether Starmer can stabilize his position before any contest materializes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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