The closely matched trader odds between an increase and no change at the Banco de la República’s June 2026 policy meeting stem from the central bank’s surprise unanimous hold at 11.25% in April after two prior 100-basis-point hikes. Persistent upside risks to inflation—projected to climb toward 6.4% by year-end amid fiscal stimulus, a sharp minimum-wage increase, and still-elevated domestic demand—support bets on further tightening to anchor expectations. At the same time, moderating growth readings and the recent emphasis on policy consensus after board-government friction keep the no-change case competitive. The June outcome will turn on fresh CPI prints and labor data, with Polymarket odds reflecting capital-weighted sentiment on whether the restrictive stance has sufficiently slowed price pressures.