Drake’s surprise May 15 release of Iceman alongside companion albums Maid of Honour and Habibti has placed first-week equivalent-unit projections squarely in the 480k–520k range, according to early industry trackers. That narrow window fuels the near-even split between the 450k–500k and 500k–550k brackets on Polymarket, as traders weigh how much additional streaming and pure sales momentum can push the total over the midpoint. Iceman leads the trilogy in projected volume thanks to its more aggressive rollout and established fan anticipation, yet simultaneous drops risk fragmenting attention across platforms. Final Billboard 200 numbers will hinge on mid-week streaming velocity, any last-minute bundling activity, and whether the project sustains top-chart positioning through the tracking week’s close.