Traders see the closely bunched probabilities across the 760–879 tweet ranges as reflecting Elon Musk’s steady mid-August posting cadence on X, averaging 15–30 posts daily during routine periods without major product launches or controversies. Recent examples, including 41 posts on August 9 and company updates on SpaceX and Starlink around August 11, align with this baseline volume. With roughly half the month remaining, the spread in implied probabilities highlights uncertainty over whether quiet AI, Tesla, or Grok discussions will persist or yield late-month spikes from breaking news. Historical patterns show occasional surges above 40 daily posts only during high-velocity events, keeping the market competitive rather than dominated by a single bracket.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено800-839 15.2%
840-879 11.9%
760-779 11.7%
780-799 11.3%
$140,800 Объем
$140,800 Объем
300-319
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
1%
640-659
2%
660-679
2%
680-699
4%
700-719
5%
720-739
7%
740-759
8%
760-779
12%
780-799
11%
800-839
15%
840-879
12%
880-919
7%
920-959
5%
960-999
2%
1000+
5%
800-839 15.2%
840-879 11.9%
760-779 11.7%
780-799 11.3%
$140,800 Объем
$140,800 Объем
300-319
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
1%
600-619
1%
620-639
1%
640-659
2%
660-679
2%
680-699
4%
700-719
5%
720-739
7%
740-759
8%
760-779
12%
780-799
11%
800-839
15%
840-879
12%
880-919
7%
920-959
5%
960-999
2%
1000+
5%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Источник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the closely bunched probabilities across the 760–879 tweet ranges as reflecting Elon Musk’s steady mid-August posting cadence on X, averaging 15–30 posts daily during routine periods without major product launches or controversies. Recent examples, including 41 posts on August 9 and company updates on SpaceX and Starlink around August 11, align with this baseline volume. With roughly half the month remaining, the spread in implied probabilities highlights uncertainty over whether quiet AI, Tesla, or Grok discussions will persist or yield late-month spikes from breaking news. Historical patterns show occasional surges above 40 daily posts only during high-velocity events, keeping the market competitive rather than dominated by a single bracket.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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