**Pause–Pause–Pause leads at 60% because the July 29 FOMC decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% despite three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike, reflecting the committee’s preference to await July–August CPI prints amid elevated but stable inflation and solid growth.** Geopolitical tensions and oil-price volatility have kept inflation concerns alive, yet incoming data and the absence of an August meeting have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy through the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual probabilities of a September or October hike driven by persistent above-target readings or further Middle East developments, while cut scenarios remain near zero given the current hawkish tilt and lack of labor-market weakness. Jackson Hole later this month and the next two CPI releases represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,907 Объем
$711,907 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
39%
Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,907 Объем
$711,907 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$235,909 Объем
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,561 Объем
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$36,021 Объем
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Объем
<1%
Other
$310,868 Объем
39%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Pause–Pause–Pause leads at 60% because the July 29 FOMC decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% despite three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike, reflecting the committee’s preference to await July–August CPI prints amid elevated but stable inflation and solid growth.** Geopolitical tensions and oil-price volatility have kept inflation concerns alive, yet incoming data and the absence of an August meeting have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy through the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual probabilities of a September or October hike driven by persistent above-target readings or further Middle East developments, while cut scenarios remain near zero given the current hawkish tilt and lack of labor-market weakness. Jackson Hole later this month and the next two CPI releases represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Объем
$711,907Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Pause–Pause–Pause leads at 60% because the July 29 FOMC decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% despite three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike, reflecting the committee’s preference to await July–August CPI prints amid elevated but stable inflation and solid growth.** Geopolitical tensions and oil-price volatility have kept inflation concerns alive, yet incoming data and the absence of an August meeting have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy through the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual probabilities of a September or October hike driven by persistent above-target readings or further Middle East developments, while cut scenarios remain near zero given the current hawkish tilt and lack of labor-market weakness. Jackson Hole later this month and the next two CPI releases represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$711,907Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Pause–Pause–Pause leads at 60% because the July 29 FOMC decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% despite three dissents favoring a 25 bp hike, reflecting the committee’s preference to await July–August CPI prints amid elevated but stable inflation and solid growth.** Geopolitical tensions and oil-price volatility have kept inflation concerns alive, yet incoming data and the absence of an August meeting have reinforced trader expectations for unchanged policy through the September 15–16 and October 27–28 meetings. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual probabilities of a September or October hike driven by persistent above-target readings or further Middle East developments, while cut scenarios remain near zero given the current hawkish tilt and lack of labor-market weakness. Jackson Hole later this month and the next two CPI releases represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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