The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$105,161 Объем
$105,161 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$105,161 Объем
$105,161 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Объем
$105,161Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Объем
$105,161Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 90.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 2026 FOMC meeting, backed by resilient labor market data including April nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, has reinforced trader consensus that no acute crisis justifies an unscheduled intermeeting move, aligning with CME FedWatch futures pricing near-zero odds of near-term easing. Hawkish dissents and forward guidance further anchor expectations for a data-dependent pause. A sharp deterioration in the labor market or a major financial shock could still prompt reconsideration, though current indicators limit those near-term probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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