Recent forecast revisions have created tight competition among moderate-growth outcomes for Germany's Q2 2026 GDP, with market-implied odds clustered between 1.0-1.2% and 1.3%+ amid elevated uncertainty. The April downgrade of the full-year 2026 projection to 0.5%—driven by higher oil and gas prices following the Iran conflict—has tempered expectations after Q1's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, which was supported by consumption and a modest export rebound. Traders appear to weigh ongoing fiscal stimulus against energy-cost headwinds and subdued manufacturing momentum, producing near-even probabilities across the 0.1-1.2% range. Upcoming flash indicators on industrial production and retail sales through mid-May will likely sharpen the path to the August preliminary release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 44%
0.7-0.9% 25%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июл. 2026 г.
≤0.0%
45%
0.1-0.3%
46%
0.4-0.6%
27%
0.7-0.9%
25%
1.0-1.2%
47%
1.3%+
44%
0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 44%
0.7-0.9% 25%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июл. 2026 г.
≤0.0%
$8 Объем
45%
0.1-0.3%
$5 Объем
46%
0.4-0.6%
$4 Объем
27%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Объем
25%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Объем
47%
1.3%+
$0 Объем
44%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast revisions have created tight competition among moderate-growth outcomes for Germany's Q2 2026 GDP, with market-implied odds clustered between 1.0-1.2% and 1.3%+ amid elevated uncertainty. The April downgrade of the full-year 2026 projection to 0.5%—driven by higher oil and gas prices following the Iran conflict—has tempered expectations after Q1's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, which was supported by consumption and a modest export rebound. Traders appear to weigh ongoing fiscal stimulus against energy-cost headwinds and subdued manufacturing momentum, producing near-even probabilities across the 0.1-1.2% range. Upcoming flash indicators on industrial production and retail sales through mid-May will likely sharpen the path to the August preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
Объем
$17Дата окончания
30 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecast revisions have created tight competition among moderate-growth outcomes for Germany's Q2 2026 GDP, with market-implied odds clustered between 1.0-1.2% and 1.3%+ amid elevated uncertainty. The April downgrade of the full-year 2026 projection to 0.5%—driven by higher oil and gas prices following the Iran conflict—has tempered expectations after Q1's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, which was supported by consumption and a modest export rebound. Traders appear to weigh ongoing fiscal stimulus against energy-cost headwinds and subdued manufacturing momentum, producing near-even probabilities across the 0.1-1.2% range. Upcoming flash indicators on industrial production and retail sales through mid-May will likely sharpen the path to the August preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$17Дата окончания
30 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast revisions have created tight competition among moderate-growth outcomes for Germany's Q2 2026 GDP, with market-implied odds clustered between 1.0-1.2% and 1.3%+ amid elevated uncertainty. The April downgrade of the full-year 2026 projection to 0.5%—driven by higher oil and gas prices following the Iran conflict—has tempered expectations after Q1's 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, which was supported by consumption and a modest export rebound. Traders appear to weigh ongoing fiscal stimulus against energy-cost headwinds and subdued manufacturing momentum, producing near-even probabilities across the 0.1-1.2% range. Upcoming flash indicators on industrial production and retail sales through mid-May will likely sharpen the path to the August preliminary release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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