The closely matched market-implied odds between 1.5-2.0% and 0.0-0.5% GDP growth for Mexico in Q2 2026 stem primarily from the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction recorded in Q1 2026, which produced a negative statistical carryover amid softening industrial output, services, and household consumption. Traders weigh this weak base against offsetting supports including resilient U.S. export demand, ongoing nearshoring investment flows, and a stable labor market. Banxico’s May reduction of the policy rate to 6.50% is expected to ease financial conditions modestly, while the June-July FIFA World Cup events could lift consumption. The competitive pricing underscores uncertainty over whether domestic demand can reaccelerate enough to overcome the first-quarter drag before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
-0,5-0,0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 47%
1.0-1.5% 27%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июл. 2026 г.
< -0,5%
25%
-0,5-0,0%
28%
0.0-0.5%
47%
0.5-1.0%
27%
1.0-1.5%
27%
1.5-2.0%
47%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5%+
12%
-0,5-0,0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 47%
1.0-1.5% 27%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 июл. 2026 г.
< -0,5%
$4 Объем
25%
-0,5-0,0%
$24 Объем
28%
0.0-0.5%
$11 Объем
47%
0.5-1.0%
$6 Объем
27%
1.0-1.5%
$2 Объем
27%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Объем
47%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Объем
11%
2.5%+
$0 Объем
12%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market-implied odds between 1.5-2.0% and 0.0-0.5% GDP growth for Mexico in Q2 2026 stem primarily from the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction recorded in Q1 2026, which produced a negative statistical carryover amid softening industrial output, services, and household consumption. Traders weigh this weak base against offsetting supports including resilient U.S. export demand, ongoing nearshoring investment flows, and a stable labor market. Banxico’s May reduction of the policy rate to 6.50% is expected to ease financial conditions modestly, while the June-July FIFA World Cup events could lift consumption. The competitive pricing underscores uncertainty over whether domestic demand can reaccelerate enough to overcome the first-quarter drag before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Объем
$47Дата окончания
30 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market-implied odds between 1.5-2.0% and 0.0-0.5% GDP growth for Mexico in Q2 2026 stem primarily from the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction recorded in Q1 2026, which produced a negative statistical carryover amid softening industrial output, services, and household consumption. Traders weigh this weak base against offsetting supports including resilient U.S. export demand, ongoing nearshoring investment flows, and a stable labor market. Banxico’s May reduction of the policy rate to 6.50% is expected to ease financial conditions modestly, while the June-July FIFA World Cup events could lift consumption. The competitive pricing underscores uncertainty over whether domestic demand can reaccelerate enough to overcome the first-quarter drag before resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$47Дата окончания
30 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds between 1.5-2.0% and 0.0-0.5% GDP growth for Mexico in Q2 2026 stem primarily from the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter contraction recorded in Q1 2026, which produced a negative statistical carryover amid softening industrial output, services, and household consumption. Traders weigh this weak base against offsetting supports including resilient U.S. export demand, ongoing nearshoring investment flows, and a stable labor market. Banxico’s May reduction of the policy rate to 6.50% is expected to ease financial conditions modestly, while the June-July FIFA World Cup events could lift consumption. The competitive pricing underscores uncertainty over whether domestic demand can reaccelerate enough to overcome the first-quarter drag before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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