Strong semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% year-over-year Q1 2026 GDP print—the strongest pace in five years—have lifted trader-implied odds for Q2 2026 growth into the 3.5–4.4% range, with those buckets now commanding the highest combined probability. April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, continues to underpin the consensus, prompting institutions such as KDI and JP Morgan to raise full-year forecasts to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing pressures include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which highlight fragile domestic consumption and keep lower-band outcomes around 1.5–2.9% in play. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July 28 advance release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 40.0%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 июл. 2026 г.
<1.5%
19%
1.5–1.9%
23%
2.0–2.4%
21%
2.5–2.9%
40%
3.0–3.4%
24%
3.5–3.9%
61%
4.0–4.4%
48%
4.5%+
25%
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 40.0%
2.0–2.4% 21%
<1.5% 19.2%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 июл. 2026 г.
<1.5%
$278 Объем
19%
1.5–1.9%
$184 Объем
23%
2.0–2.4%
$351 Объем
21%
2.5–2.9%
$161 Объем
40%
3.0–3.4%
$154 Объем
24%
3.5–3.9%
$319 Объем
61%
4.0–4.4%
$276 Объем
48%
4.5%+
$238 Объем
25%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% year-over-year Q1 2026 GDP print—the strongest pace in five years—have lifted trader-implied odds for Q2 2026 growth into the 3.5–4.4% range, with those buckets now commanding the highest combined probability. April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, continues to underpin the consensus, prompting institutions such as KDI and JP Morgan to raise full-year forecasts to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing pressures include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which highlight fragile domestic consumption and keep lower-band outcomes around 1.5–2.9% in play. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July 28 advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Открытие рынка: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Объем
$1,961Дата окончания
23 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% year-over-year Q1 2026 GDP print—the strongest pace in five years—have lifted trader-implied odds for Q2 2026 growth into the 3.5–4.4% range, with those buckets now commanding the highest combined probability. April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, continues to underpin the consensus, prompting institutions such as KDI and JP Morgan to raise full-year forecasts to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing pressures include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which highlight fragile domestic consumption and keep lower-band outcomes around 1.5–2.9% in play. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July 28 advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Объем
$1,961Дата окончания
23 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% year-over-year Q1 2026 GDP print—the strongest pace in five years—have lifted trader-implied odds for Q2 2026 growth into the 3.5–4.4% range, with those buckets now commanding the highest combined probability. April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge, fueled by AI-driven chip demand, continues to underpin the consensus, prompting institutions such as KDI and JP Morgan to raise full-year forecasts to 2.5–3.0%. Counterbalancing pressures include soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation, which highlight fragile domestic consumption and keep lower-band outcomes around 1.5–2.9% in play. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July 28 advance release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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