xAI's Grok 4 series has seen steady but uneven progress since the flagship Grok 4 launch in July 2025 and the follow-on Grok 4.1 update in November 2025, with internal roadmaps pointing to Grok 4.4 as a major scale jump to roughly 1 trillion parameters. Early May 2026 timelines for the 4.4 release slipped amid reports of pre-training team adjustments at xAI and a possible consolidation into a 1.5-trillion-parameter variant originally slated for 4.5. As of mid-June 2026, official xAI channels list recent releases focused on coding agents, image-to-video tools, and API features rather than the next 4.x model, leaving traders focused on whether competitive pressure from peer labs or xAI's parallel training of seven models will accelerate or further delay the 4.4 public rollout.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоGrok 4.4 released by...?
Grok 4.4 released by...?
$18,324 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
June 15
4%
June 30
12%
31 июля
67%
$18,324 Объем
June 15
$5,282 Объем
4%
June 30
$11,207 Объем
12%
31 июля
$508 Объем
67%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 4 series has seen steady but uneven progress since the flagship Grok 4 launch in July 2025 and the follow-on Grok 4.1 update in November 2025, with internal roadmaps pointing to Grok 4.4 as a major scale jump to roughly 1 trillion parameters. Early May 2026 timelines for the 4.4 release slipped amid reports of pre-training team adjustments at xAI and a possible consolidation into a 1.5-trillion-parameter variant originally slated for 4.5. As of mid-June 2026, official xAI channels list recent releases focused on coding agents, image-to-video tools, and API features rather than the next 4.x model, leaving traders focused on whether competitive pressure from peer labs or xAI's parallel training of seven models will accelerate or further delay the 4.4 public rollout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Объем
$18,324Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's Grok 4 series has seen steady but uneven progress since the flagship Grok 4 launch in July 2025 and the follow-on Grok 4.1 update in November 2025, with internal roadmaps pointing to Grok 4.4 as a major scale jump to roughly 1 trillion parameters. Early May 2026 timelines for the 4.4 release slipped amid reports of pre-training team adjustments at xAI and a possible consolidation into a 1.5-trillion-parameter variant originally slated for 4.5. As of mid-June 2026, official xAI channels list recent releases focused on coding agents, image-to-video tools, and API features rather than the next 4.x model, leaving traders focused on whether competitive pressure from peer labs or xAI's parallel training of seven models will accelerate or further delay the 4.4 public rollout.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$18,324Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok 4 series has seen steady but uneven progress since the flagship Grok 4 launch in July 2025 and the follow-on Grok 4.1 update in November 2025, with internal roadmaps pointing to Grok 4.4 as a major scale jump to roughly 1 trillion parameters. Early May 2026 timelines for the 4.4 release slipped amid reports of pre-training team adjustments at xAI and a possible consolidation into a 1.5-trillion-parameter variant originally slated for 4.5. As of mid-June 2026, official xAI channels list recent releases focused on coding agents, image-to-video tools, and API features rather than the next 4.x model, leaving traders focused on whether competitive pressure from peer labs or xAI's parallel training of seven models will accelerate or further delay the 4.4 public rollout.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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