Recent numerical weather prediction runs and ensemble guidance from sources including the ECMWF and regional models indicate a high of 33°C as the most likely peak for Ankara on August 24 under sunny, light northeasterly flow. This places 32–33°C squarely in the center of the distribution, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Ankara’s late-August climatology features a seasonal decline from July peaks, with typical maxima near 32–34°C and low precipitation risk that limits convective cooling. Minor model spread around boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak front accounts for the secondary 31°C probability, while warmer outliers above 34°C remain low-probability given current steering patterns and absence of strong subsidence. Updated 48-hour forecasts and any overnight radiosonde data will be the next key inputs for traders.