Recent numerical weather prediction models, including those from global ensembles and Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, indicate a maximum temperature near 11–12 °C in Buenos Aires on July 4, driven by persistent overcast conditions and southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air. These factors limit daytime solar heating and keep surface temperatures below the July climatological average of 13–15 °C. Short-term forecast uncertainty remains modest given the proximity to the event, primarily tied to exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing; traders appear to weight outcomes accordingly, with the heaviest volume on 11 °C and 12 °C reflecting model consensus while allowing modest probability for 10 °C or 13 °C if conditions shift.