Traders are pricing a narrow range around 25–27°C for Chengdu’s September 24 high because short-range ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF show substantial spread driven by uncertain boundary-layer moisture and weak synoptic forcing. The city’s Sichuan Basin location amplifies sensitivity to cloud cover and local wind patterns that can shift daytime maxima by 1–2°C. With the market’s top outcomes clustered below 30% each, the distribution reflects genuine model disagreement rather than a single dominant signal. Historical September climatology places the normal maximum near 26°C, providing little additional constraint. Updated 48-hour model runs and any late-arriving observational data on regional humidity will likely narrow the implied probabilities before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Чэнду 24 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Чэнду 24 сентября?
26°C 25%
27°C 24%
28°C 21%
25°C 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
24 сент. 2026 г.
21°C или ниже
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
11%
24°C
16%
25°C
21%
26°C
25%
27°C
24%
28°C
21%
29°C
15%
30°C
14%
31°C или выше
<1%
26°C 25%
27°C 24%
28°C 21%
25°C 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
24 сент. 2026 г.
21°C или ниже
$0 Объем
4%
22°C
$0 Объем
4%
23°C
$0 Объем
11%
24°C
$5 Объем
16%
25°C
$0 Объем
21%
26°C
$0 Объем
25%
27°C
$0 Объем
24%
28°C
$0 Объем
21%
29°C
$0 Объем
15%
30°C
$0 Объем
14%
31°C или выше
$100 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing a narrow range around 25–27°C for Chengdu’s September 24 high because short-range ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF show substantial spread driven by uncertain boundary-layer moisture and weak synoptic forcing. The city’s Sichuan Basin location amplifies sensitivity to cloud cover and local wind patterns that can shift daytime maxima by 1–2°C. With the market’s top outcomes clustered below 30% each, the distribution reflects genuine model disagreement rather than a single dominant signal. Historical September climatology places the normal maximum near 26°C, providing little additional constraint. Updated 48-hour model runs and any late-arriving observational data on regional humidity will likely narrow the implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Объем
$105Дата окончания
24 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are pricing a narrow range around 25–27°C for Chengdu’s September 24 high because short-range ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF show substantial spread driven by uncertain boundary-layer moisture and weak synoptic forcing. The city’s Sichuan Basin location amplifies sensitivity to cloud cover and local wind patterns that can shift daytime maxima by 1–2°C. With the market’s top outcomes clustered below 30% each, the distribution reflects genuine model disagreement rather than a single dominant signal. Historical September climatology places the normal maximum near 26°C, providing little additional constraint. Updated 48-hour model runs and any late-arriving observational data on regional humidity will likely narrow the implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$105Дата окончания
24 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing a narrow range around 25–27°C for Chengdu’s September 24 high because short-range ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF show substantial spread driven by uncertain boundary-layer moisture and weak synoptic forcing. The city’s Sichuan Basin location amplifies sensitivity to cloud cover and local wind patterns that can shift daytime maxima by 1–2°C. With the market’s top outcomes clustered below 30% each, the distribution reflects genuine model disagreement rather than a single dominant signal. Historical September climatology places the normal maximum near 26°C, providing little additional constraint. Updated 48-hour model runs and any late-arriving observational data on regional humidity will likely narrow the implied probabilities before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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